May 4, 2026 · 4:30 PM
The BJP's internal review committee has submitted its report on the by-election losses. Three senior state leaders have been asked to explain the results in Bihar and Rajasthan. Changes in state leadership structures are expected before July.
May 2, 2026 · 11:00 PM
Final tally: INDIA bloc 11, NDA 3. Voter turnout averaged 58% — down from 62% in these same constituencies in the 2024 general election. Low turnout in urban booths benefited the opposition in 3 key seats.
Results for 14 by-elections — 4 Lok Sabha seats and 10 state assembly seats across Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Himachal Pradesh — were declared on May 1. The INDIA bloc won 11 of the 14 contests, including four seats that pre-election surveys had rated as safe for the NDA. The NDA retained just three seats — all in constituencies where it had won in 2024 by margins exceeding 80,000 votes. The scale of the swing has prompted an emergency review within the BJP.
The Swing: What the Numbers Say
May 2026 By-Elections — Key Results
- Total seats contested: 14 (4 LS, 10 assembly)
- INDIA bloc won: 11 seats (78.6%)
- NDA won: 3 seats (all retained, not gained)
- Average vote-share swing to INDIA bloc: 6.8 percentage points
- 4 seats flipped from NDA to INDIA bloc — all in Bihar and Rajasthan
- Average voter turnout: 58% (down from 62% in 2024 general election)
“By-elections are historically favourable for opposition parties, and we should not over-read them. But four flips in Bihar and Rajasthan — states central to 2027 — is a number the BJP cannot dismiss. The anti-incumbency signal is real.”
— Prof. Suhas Palshikar, political scientist and election analyst
What This Means for 2027
Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar are scheduled for assembly elections in late 2027 — the largest state election cycle before the 2029 general election. All three states recorded INDIA bloc gains in the May by-elections. In Rajasthan, the Congress-led alliance flipped two assembly seats in Barmer and Jhunjhunu — districts where PM-KISAN exclusion and agrarian distress have been prominent issues. In Bihar, the INDIA bloc flipped one Lok Sabha seat and two assembly seats, with the RJD and Congress together outpolling the JD(U)-BJP alliance by over 40,000 votes combined. Political analysts caution that by-election results do not reliably predict full election outcomes, but note that all four flipped seats were won by the NDA in 2024 with comfortable margins — suggesting genuine erosion, not just swing-voter volatility.
11/14
Seats won by INDIA bloc
6.8pp
Average vote-share swing
4
Seats flipped from NDA
58%
Average voter turnout
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Priya Sharma
Political Correspondent
Priya covers Parliament and electoral politics from New Delhi. She has reported on six Union Budgets and three general elections.